Recent Presentations

Click here to watch our panel on A Global Economic System in Turmoil: What is at Stake for the MENA region? (May 17, 2021), which was the plenary session of the ERF 27th Annual Conference.

Abstract: While the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe economic crisis and recession at the world level, there is a higher-than-usual degree of uncertainty related to recovery. This is particularly more pronounced for the Middle-East and North Africa (MENA) economies that are more dependent on oil exports and have a lower fiscal space. Thus, with decreasing oil prices, these two external shocks are likely to have a deep and long-lasting effect on the MENA countries and will put a halt on their progress in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Therefore, this first plenary session will discuss several questions related to these shocks:

First, for how long and how deep the impact of these unprecedented shocks is going to be? What will be the medium and long run effect, especially with regards to SDGs?
What are the main challenges faced by the MENA region to move forward despite this uncertainty?
How the world will look like in the post-COVID-19 era? What will be the role of MENA region?

Click here to watch our panel on Why has it taken so long to take climate change seriously? (March 28, 2021), which was part of Cambridge Festival.

Abstract: What or who has prevented urgent action on climate change? Why have policymakers lagged behind the science and technology? How much do individuals make a difference or has it needed people to work out how to make money out of climate change for politicians to take action? Is there a human tipping point - allied to the scientific tipping point - where more radical action becomes inevitable? And how can we reimagine a more positive future?

Click here to watch our panel on Challenges and Management of the Covid-19 Pandemic: Views from Iran & Beyond (December 18, 2020), which was part of the Socio-Economic, Cultural and Technical Aspects of Natural Disaster Management (NaDiMa) Dialouge. You can also download the slides from my talk here.

Click here to watch our panel on The Economic Impacts of Covid-19 on Credit Unions (November 24, 2020), which was part of World Council of Credit Unions' Global Financial Symposium.

Abstract: The economic impacts of COVID-19 are being felt throughout the world, with some regions facing deeper and longer-lasting negative effects than others. Along with the impacts being felt on a national and regional level, credit unions face their own unique set of financial challenges going forward. World Council’s COVID-19 Response Committee is hosting this webinar to help credit unions respond to this new reality.

Click here to watch our panel on Climate Change and Finance (November 13, 2020), which was part of the University of Cambridge’s Inaugural Cambridge Zero Climate Change Festival. You can also download the slides from my talk here.

Abstract: Bringing the global economy in-line with the Paris Agreement and national commitments to deliver net zero will require massive investments in the energy system, food system, transport infrastructure, built environment, production processes, recycling and waste management systems, and more. Estimates of the amount of finance needed to deliver such changes range from $1.6 trillion to $3.8 trillion every year between 2016 and 2050. Featuring cutting-edge research from across Cambridge Zero’s climate economics community, this session offers an inside-look at how to measure country-level climate risk, the impact of ESG performance on stock returns during the pandemic, and the role of green investment banks and other financial institutions in mitigation and adaptation.

Click here to listen to an episode of the University of Cambridge podcast series Science, Policy, and a Green Recovery, where I discuss the macroeconomic effects of the Covid-19 shock, the long-term costs of climate change and the potential for a green recovery in dealing with both with Rob Doubleday and Nina Seega.

Click here to watch my talk on Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-rich Arab Economies (September 19, 2020), which was part of the University of Cambridge 2020 Alumni Festival. You can also download the slides from my talk here.

You can watch my webinar on the Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19 (July 1, 2020), which was part of the Judge Business School’s What’s Next? How to Survive and Thrive in a Post COVID-19 World webinar series here.

Abstract: This time is really different! Unlike a typical macroeconomic shock, the COVID-19 pandemic and policies required to mitigate its spread have economic consequences involving supply, demand, and confidence. The combination is unprecedented. This talk explains why this time is really different and potential paths for recovery.

A short piece on my talk is available from here.

Click here to watch our panel on The Economics of the Dual Shock in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) (May 12, 2020), which was part of the ERF-World Bank webinar series.

Abstract: Countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region face both the COVID-19 pandemic and a collapse in oil prices. Given the unprecedented fast evolving global health crisis and highly volatile oil prices, estimating the costs of the dual shocks and forecasting economic activity is challenging. However, changes in forecasts can provide some information on the costs of the crises.

Why Study Economics at Cambridge? In this presentation at the University of Cambridge Open Days in 2019, I discuss what the course is like in Cambridge and why you should apply to study economics here. You can also download the slides from my talk here.

Oil Revenue Volatility, Sanctions and Mismanagement: Lessons from Iran at the panel on the Impact of 'Maximum Pressure' Sanctions on Iran in London (June 21, 2019) hosted by the London School of Economics Middle East Centre and LSE Persian Society.

Abstract: The Iranian economy has been functioning below capacity due to years of economic mismanagement, eight years of war with Iraq, as well as prolonged and at times severe trade and financial sanctions. It is clear that the Iranian economy faces serious challenges and requires fundamental reforms, which can no longer be postponed. To this end Iran needs to adopt a comprehensive package of fiscal, monetary, financial and structural reforms aimed at addressing its inter-related challenges. The policy choices are not easy. That said, the Iranian economy has a lot potential.

Video: You can watch the video of my talk here.

Long-Term Growth Effects of Climate Change at the Climate Change and Central Banking Workshop in Ottawa (May 10, 2019), organized by the Bank of Canada.

Abstract: We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labour productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables - defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04°C per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by 7.22 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement, thereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01°C per annum, reduces the loss substantially to 1.07 percent. These effects vary significantly across countries. We also provide supplementary evidence using data on a sample of 48 U.S. states between 1963 and 2016, and show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labour productivity and employment.

Oil Revenue Volatility, Sanctions and Mismanagement: Lessons from Iran at the International Iranian Economic Association’s (IIEA) Sixth International Conference on the Iranian Economy in Naples (May 16-17, 2019) hosted by the University of Naples “L’Orientale”.

Volatility, Macroeconomic Policy and Institutions in Resource-Rich Economies at the Workshop on Macroeconomic Stability and Diversification in Oil-based Economies in Riyadh (April 16-17, 2019), organized by King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC).

Volatility and Macroeconomic Policy in the Middle East and North Africa Region at the Symposium on the World Economic Outlook: Implications for Kuwait and the MENA Region in Kuwait (November 12, 2018), organized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Middle East Center for Economics and Finance and the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development (AFESD).

Abstract: In this presentation, I argue that: (1) Volatility is a major problem in the MENA region and macroeconomic policy has not helped. There is a clear role for institutions and the government (fiscal policy) in offsetting some of the negative growth effects due to the volatility curse. (2) The new oil order is a serious challenge for the MENA region, in particular for oil-exporting countries, as lower oil prices weaken domestic demand as well as external and fiscal balances; but also for oil importers, as gains from lower oil prices are offset by a decline in external demand/financing by MENA oil exporters given strong linkages between the two groups through trade, remittances, tourism, foreign direct investment, and grants. (3) The costs associated with climate change volatility in the MENA region are potentially substantial. MENA countries need to act proactively by identifying the related risks to be able to design proper climate policies incorporated into their development strategies and fiscal planning in general.

Sanctions and Upcoming Challenges for the Iranian Economy at a Panel Discussion on the Iranian Economy and Economic Sanctions in London (October 9, 2018), organized by the International Iranian Economic Association (IIEA), London Middle East Institute (LMEI), and Centre for Iranian Studies at SOAS, University of London.

Abstract: Sanctions have, no doubt, harmed the Iranian economy, but one should not underestimate the damage done by years of economic mismanagement. Iran needs a more resilient economy, which implies: strengthened institutions and policy mechanisms which act as shock absorbers in the face of high levels of oil revenue volatility; better conduct of fiscal and monetary policy; growth-friendly fiscal policies as well as structural reforms; private sector investment; diversification; regional development policies should be initiated that give priorities to remote regions that have been left behind.